Publications

Challenges with interpreting the impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability using SST-restoring experiments
Christopher H O’Reilly, Matthew Patterson, Jon Robson, Paul Arthur Monerie, Daniel Hodson, Yohan Ruprich-Robert
2023 npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
The strong role of external forcing in seasonal forecasts of European summer temperature
Matthew Patterson, Antje Weisheimer, Daniel J Befort, Christopher H O’Reilly
2022 Environmental Research Letters
Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: Challenges and potential solutions
Daniel J. Befort, Lukas Brunner, Leonard F. Borchert, Christopher H. O'Reilly, Juliette Mignot, Andrew P. Ballinger, Gabriele Hegerl, James Murphy, Antje Weisheimer
2022 Geophysical Research Letters
SST-driven variability of the East Asian summer jet on a decadal time-scale in CMIP6 models
Matthew Patterson, Christopher H. O'Reilly, Tim Woollings, Antje Weisheimer, Bo Wu
2021 Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Daniel J. Befort, Antje Weisheimer, Tim Woollings, Andrew Ballinger, Gabriele Hegerl
2021 Communications Earth & Environment
Forcing mechanism of the Silk Road pattern and the sensitivity of Rossby-wave source hotspots to mean-state winds
Ronald Kwan Kit Li, Chi-Yung Tam, Ngar-Cheung Lau, Soo-Jin Sohn, Joong-Bae Ahn, Christopher H. O'Reilly
2021 Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Dynamical mechanisms linking Indian monsoon precipitation and the circumglobal teleconnection
Jonathan D Beverley, Steven J Woolnough, Laura H Baker, Stephanie J Johnson, Antje Weisheimer, Christopher H O’Reilly
2021 Climate Dynamics
Representing model uncertainty in multi-annual predictions
Daniel J. Befort, Christopher H. O'Reilly, Antje Weisheimer
2020 Geophysical Research Letters
PDF DOI URL
Causal pathways linking different flavours of ENSO with the Greater Horn of Africa short rains
David MacLeod, Richard Graham, Christopher H. O'Reilly, George Otieno, Martin Todd
2020 Atmospheric Science Letters
PDF DOI URL
Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Daniel J Befort, Antje Weisheimer
2020 Earth System Dynamics
PDF DOI URL
Forecasting extreme stratospheric polar vortex events
L. J. Gray, M. J. Brown, J. Knight, M. Andrews, H. Lu, C. O'Reilly, J. Anstey
2020 Nature Communications
PDF DOI URL
Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions
Daniel J. Befort, Christopher H. O'Reilly, Antje Weisheimer
2020 Geophysical Research Letters
PDF DOI URL
Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework
Lukas Brunner, Carol McSweeney, Andrew P. Ballinger, Daniel J. Befort, Marianna Benassi, Ben Booth, Erika Coppola, Hylke de Vries, Glen Harris, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Geert Lenderink, Jason Lowe, Rita Nogherotto, Christopher H. O'Reilly, Saïd Qasmi, Aurélien Ribes, Paolo Stocchi, Sabine Undorf
2020 Journal of Climate
PDF DOI URL
Assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Antje Weisheimer, David MacLeod, Daniel J. Befort, Tim Palmer
2020 Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
PDF DOI URL
Seasonal Forecasts of the Twentieth Century
Antje Weisheimer, Daniel J. Befort, Dave MacLeod, Tim Palmer, Christopher H. O'Reilly, Kristian Strømmen
2020 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
PDF DOI URL
Tropical atmospheric drivers of wintertime European precipitation events
Ronald K. K. Li, Tim Woollings, Christopher H. O'Reilly, Adam A. Scaife
2019 Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
PDF DOI URL
An Interdecadal Shift of the Extratropical Teleconnection From the Tropical Pacific During Boreal Summer
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Tim Woollings, Laure Zanna, Antje Weisheimer
2019 Geophysical Research Letters
PDF DOI URL
Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective
Tess Parker, Tim Woollings, Antje Weisheimer, Chris O'Reilly, Laura Baker, Len Shaffrey
2019 Geophysical Research Letters
PDF DOI URL
Forced summer stationary waves: the opposing effects of direct radiative forcing and sea surface warming
Hugh S. Baker, Tim Woollings, Cheikh Mbengue, Myles R. Allen, Christopher H. O'Reilly, Hideo Shiogama, Sarah Sparrow
2019 Climate Dynamics
PDF DOI URL
How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?
Antje Weisheimer, Damien Decremer, David MacLeod, Christopher O'Reilly, Tim N. Stockdale, Stephanie Johnson, Tim N. Palmer
2018 Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
PDF DOI URL
The importance of stratospheric initial conditions for winter North Atlantic Oscillation predictability and implications for the signal-to-noise paradox
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Antje Weisheimer, Tim Woollings, Lesley J. Gray, Dave MacLeod
2018 Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
PDF DOI URL
Recent multivariate changes in the North Atlantic climate system, with a focus on 2005–2016
Jon Robson, Rowan T. Sutton, Alex Archibald, Fenwick Cooper, Matthew Christensen, Lesley J. Gray, N. Penny Holliday, Claire Macintosh, Malcolm McMillan, Ben Moat, Maria Russo, Rachel Tilling, Ken Carslaw, Damien Desbruyères, Owen Embury, Daniel L. Feltham, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Simon Josey, Brian King, Alastair Lewis, Gerard D. McCarthy, Chris Merchant, Adrian L. New, Christopher H. O'Reilly, Scott M. Osprey, Katie Read, Adam Scaife, Andrew Shepherd, Bablu Sinha, David Smeed, Doug Smith, Andrew Ridout, Tim Woollings, Mingxi Yang
2018 International Journal of Climatology
PDF DOI URL
The Signature of Oceanic Processes in Decadal Extratropical SST Anomalies
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Laure Zanna
2018 Geophysical Research Letters
PDF DOI URL
The Impact of Tropical Precipitation on Summertime Euro-Atlantic Circulation via a Circumglobal Wave Train
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Tim Woollings, Laure Zanna, Antje Weisheimer
2018 Journal of Climate
PDF DOI URL
Flow dependent ensemble spread in seasonal forecasts of the boreal winter extratropics
Dave MacLeod, Chris O'Reilly, Tim Palmer, Antje Weisheimer
2018 Atmospheric Science Letters
PDF DOI URL
Skilful Seasonal Predictions of Summer European Rainfall
Nick Dunstone, Doug Smith, Adam Scaife, Leon Hermanson, David Fereday, Chris O'Reilly, Alison Stirling, Rosie Eade, Margaret Gordon, Craig MacLachlan, Tim Woollings, Katy Sheen, Stephen Belcher
2018 Geophysical Research Letters
PDF DOI URL
Interdecadal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to the wintertime North Pacific
Christopher H. O'Reilly
2018 Climate Dynamics
PDF DOI URL
Impact of Gulf Stream SST biases on the global atmospheric circulation
Robert W. Lee, Tim J. Woollings, Brian J. Hoskins, Keith D. Williams, Christopher H. O'Reilly, Giacomo Masato
2018 Climate Dynamics
PDF DOI URL
Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics
Matthew Collins, Shoshiro Minobe, Marcelo Barreiro, Simona Bordoni, Yohai Kaspi, Akira Kuwano-Yoshida, Noel Keenlyside, Elisa Manzini, Christopher H. O'Reilly, Rowan Sutton, Shang-Ping Xie, Olga Zolina
2018 Nature Climate Change
PDF DOI URL
The Dynamical Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Continental Climate
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Tim Woollings, Laure Zanna
2017 Journal of Climate
PDF DOI URL
Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century
Christopher H. O'Reilly, James Heatley, Dave MacLeod, Antje Weisheimer, Tim N. Palmer, Nathalie Schaller, Tim Woollings
2017 Geophysical Research Letters
PDF DOI URL
Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution
Antje Weisheimer, Nathalie Schaller, Christopher O'Reilly, David A. MacLeod, Tim Palmer
2016 Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
PDF DOI URL
The Gulf Stream influence on wintertime North Atlantic jet variability
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Shoshiro Minobe, Akira Kuwano-Yoshida, Tim Woollings
2016 Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
PDF DOI URL
The signature of low-frequency oceanic forcing in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Markus Huber, Tim Woollings, Laure Zanna
2016 Geophysical Research Letters
PDF DOI URL
The influence of the Gulf Stream on wintertime European blocking
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Shoshiro Minobe, Akira Kuwano-Yoshida
2015 Climate Dynamics
PDF DOI URL
The response of the Pacific storm track and atmospheric circulation to Kuroshio Extension variability
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Arnaud Czaja
2014 Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
PDF DOI URL
The emergence of zonal ocean jets under large-scale stochastic wind forcing
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Arnaud Czaja, J. H. LaCasce
2012 Geophysical Research Letters
PDF DOI URL